Matusik Research reveals pockets of strength nationally amid the property gloom as affordability repair gets under way

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Australia’s housing market is not heading for the doomsday wipeout forecast in some quarters, according to analyst Michael Matusik, who says that while prices are falling in some of the major capitals, there are plenty of markets still climbing.

Matusik’s latest Deep Dive: Property Clock + Market Outlook has pushed back against expectations that property values will take a hit of up to 20 per cent nationally and instead sees the market undergoing a period of affordability repair where price falls will largely be moderate.

The Matusik report dissects the trends across 30 major urban centres across Australia, each of which is moving through its own cycle.

The research has found that even as several major capitals are correcting, there remain several pockets of strength, with the regions still rising and multiple markets already moving into recovery.

“Australia is now a highly segmented market, not a single national story,” says Mr Matusik.

“The country’s 30 largest urban areas each sit at a different point on the property clock with some easing, some stabilising and others still climbing.

“This segmentation is why the next decade will reward informed, selective buyers rather than those relying on broad national trends.”

The Matusik analysis has found that price corrections will be driven by softer borrowing capacity and a natural cooling after the post‑COVID surge.

“The correction has already begun and for many markets this should involve moderate nominal price falls,” he says.

“For others it will mean several years of relatively flat values while inflation and wage growth quietly repair affordability.”

However, the Matusik report also notes that exceptionally tight vacancy rates of between 0.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent will continue to support rental yields and buffer values, even in markets experiencing price moderation.

“This segmentation is now the defining feature of the next 12 to 18 months where the housing market is likely to increasingly resemble the 1990s,” says Mr Matusik.

“The likely destination for the market is not collapse, but rather stagnation, and that is why the comparison with the 1990s matters.

“That means longer periods of limited real price growth, greater market segmentation and substantially more importance attached to local incomes, employment, affordability and genuine housing demand.”

The Matusik report points to price upswings or late-cycle strength currently under way in several urban areas nationally.

The research has identified Newcastle-Maitland, Wollongong, Hobart, Darwin, Albury-Wodonga and Rockhampton as markets that are in the rising phase of the property cycle.

Perth, Townsville, Mackay, Bunbury, Hervey Bay and Wagga Wagga are approaching their peak as they benefit from strong local economies and tight supply.

At the same time, four markets have already moved past their correction and into early recovery, namely Central Coast, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo.

“These cities are seeing improved turnover, stabilising prices and renewed buyer activity, the classic signs of a market finding its feet again,” says Mr Matusik.

While Brisbane, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Canberra and Cairns are easing, and Sydney and Melbourne remain in decline, the research says even in these cities the adjustment is orderly, driven by affordability repair rather than panic.

“The emerging picture is one of rotation, not collapse,” says Mr Matusik.

“Australia’s housing market is recalibrating, not retreating.

“That means for buyers, investors and developers, opportunities still exist, but they’re simply more selective, more localised and more dependent on understanding where each market sits on the clock.”